Coreia of the south and Coreia of the north: Impossible peace, improbable War. Prof. Ivan Santiago Hisses So that reader can to understand good dynamics of region of Corias, that in the truth is a Korea that was divided to the way and transformed into two, must appeal History, but goes to trace a geographic rocking. The War is improbable, for the fact of that region to be today one of the main ones in economic development of the world: one is about ' ' quase' ' the main center of the capitalist world. The region, didactically called Pacific basin, shelters powerful economic powers as Japan and China, the Asian Tigers and the New Tigers, possesss part of Russia and a confusion of economic and geopolitical interests. The War is very improbable for the geopolitical fact.
The Coreia of the north, with its closing, dictatorship and socialism followed cartilha bell-Soviet in times of Cold War and now possesss in after-modernity the geopolitical protection of Russia and China. This is the fact, exactly that the two powers condemn the exageros of the Coreia of the north. The Coreia of the south, that entered for the club of rich countries when following cartilha nipo-American, possesss the geopolitical protection of United States and Japan, powerful economic powers, being the first main a military rated power of the planet. Ahead of these interests scenes, the economic question weighs still more. An immense flow of merchandises in the Pacific basin exists very, being intense between the countries members, that do not form a economic block or something it type. A war goes to interrupt this flow and in a world still in economic crisis, such interruption can take the planet to world-wide a economic collapse.
United States, Japan China and Russia, involved powers will not make this ' ' contribuio' ' to the world. The peace between the two Corias is improbable, as well as the China relation? Taiwan. Both the questions are resqucios of the Cold War. Raimond Aron, scientist French politician of century XX, shiningly ' defined such; ' guerra' ' as impossible Peace, Improbable War. The affirmation of Aron if related the eventual War between United States and former Soviet Union. A war between the two countries would consequently generate the destruction of the world and of the involved country. The phrase applies the current question perfectly: one is about a question still of the times of the Cold War; the countries that were socialist, are nuclear powers and grant to endorsement the Coreia of the north. The United States, greater economy of the world and greater military rated power of the planet cannot go off a simple shot in the region, for the fact of not wanting and not being able to win a war against Russia or China, much less with the two meetings. Impossible peace, improbable War.